Bounded rationality and small worlds

نویسندگان

  • Simon Grant
  • John Quiggin
چکیده

We consider conditions under which the representation of the world available to a boundedly rational decision-maker, whose awareness increases over time, constitutes an adequate ‘small world’ (in the sense of Savage 1954) for the assessment of a given decision. Equivalently, we consider whether boundedly rational decision-makers who gradually become aware of all relevant contingencies, can pursue a strategy that is sequentially consistent. We derive conditions on beliefs and preferences that yield a separation between the set of propositions of which the boundedly rational decision-maker is aware and those of which she is unaware and show that these conditions are sufficient to ensure sequential consistency. JEL Classification: D80, D82 ∗We thank Joseph Halpern, Jeff Kline, Mamoru Kaneko and Nancy Wallace for helpful comments and criticism.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Inductive Learning in Small and Large Worlds

Bayesian treatments of inductive inference and decision making presuppose that the structure of the situation under consideration is fully known. We are, however, often faced with having only very fragmentary information about an epistemic situation. This tension was discussed in decision theory by Savage (1954) in terms of ‘small worlds’ and ‘large worlds’ (‘grand worlds’ in Savage’s terminolo...

متن کامل

Structural Stability and Robustness to Bounded Rationality∗

The introduction of a small amount of bounded rationality into a model sometimes has little effect, and sometimes has a dramatic impact on predicted behavior. We call a model robust to bounded rationality if small deviations from rationality result only in small changes in the equilibrium set. We also say that a model is structurally stable if the equilibrium set (given fully rational agents) v...

متن کامل

Structural Stability Implies Robustness to Bounded Rationality

The introduction of a small amount of bounded rationality into a model sometimes has little effect, and sometimes has a dramatic impact on predicted behavior. We call a model robust to bounded rationality if small deviations from rationality result only in small changes in the equilibrium set. We also say that a model is structurally stable if the equilibrium set (given fully rational agents) v...

متن کامل

Emergence of scale-free characteristics in socio-ecological systems with bounded rationality

Socio-ecological systems are increasingly modelled by games played on complex networks. While the concept of Nash equilibrium assumes perfect rationality, in reality players display heterogeneous bounded rationality. Here we present a topological model of bounded rationality in socio-ecological systems, using the rationality parameter of the Quantal Response Equilibrium. We argue that system ra...

متن کامل

From “Thin” to “Thick” Bounded Rationality in the Economics of Organization: An Explorative Discussion

Bounded rationality has often been invoked in the theory of economic organization, mainly to rationalize contractual incompleteness. I argue that one may distinguish between " thin " and " thick " notions of bounded rationality; that models that rely on thin notions are often effectively indistinguishable from models that rely on full rationality; and that the value-added in terms of economic c...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2008